Smithers MINNEAPOLIS

Can VdV climb back onto a podium spot? If so, I’ll celebrate with a couple GPS enabled burritos!

Yeah… I’d like to see Carlos win. But I too expect Evans to take it in the TT.

Overall, though, I appreciate the racing, more fun when it’s close. CSC showed some good tactics, but Evans deserves the win too, cause he was able to keep a cool head and hang on.

based on the previous Tour de France
individual time trial performances, I’ve calculated the winner after
Saturday’s final time trial.
If the riders do the 53km route to St. Amand Montrond at the same rate
they finished the 29km route in Cholet, Evans still wins.

Here’s my predicted order for stage 20:
Evans 57:51
Menchov +:10
VandeVelde +14
Valverde +1:36
Sastre +1:49
Kohl +1:55
F. Schleck +2:34

Overall:
Evans 74:40:37
Sastre +15
Kohl +54
Menchov +1:15
F. Schleck +1:24
VandeVelde +3:21
Valverde +5:37

Sastre has a real good chance to win. Compare to the 2006 TDF, where there was a 56km time trial on stage 19. Sastre only lost a little over a minute to Evans on that day. Sastre seems to get better later in the race. He could definitely do it.

Don’t delude yourself into believing Sastre will finally deliver.

Edison said that genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration, but if the GC shakes out like the Stage 20 list above, apparently the former can be substituted with a few extra parts of calculation. Following wheels and taking seconds in the time trial might be an effective strategy for winning, but it’s also boring as hell.

I’m no huge fanboy of CSC/Sastre. I’m just saying Sastre has a real shot based on what I think is a more realistic calculation, i.e. a past performance in similar circumstances. Simply projecting the time difference from a shorter time trial at a completely different part of the race seems like a weaker argument to me.

Evans is the one who has been boring as hell. Seems to me Sastre attacked and delivered on L’Alpe d’Huez. I think Evans screwed up. He should have ignored the attacks and covers and just went to the front 5Ks earlier. I’m sure he was being instructed over the radio to wait, wait, wait, and then finally go when they deemed the time gap to be too big. Too defensive of a strategy at a critical moment IMHO.

Again, no particular love or hate for Sastre or Evans here. I’m enjoying the close battle as it is.

maybe sastre can borrow tainter’s helmet. if that helmet is good for 10 seconds over 4k it could give him a couple minutes on sat. it’s a thought…

I say the following having enjoyed virtually zero video coverage of the tour this year — only the daily telegraph-style transmitions on cyclingnews.

Last year’s tour seemed to have more grit, more drama (good and bad) as well as bigger balls. My impression of this year’s tour is, “holy crap, it’s already going to be over in a couple days?!”

I have to admit I took guilty pleasure in watching Vino’s rip-out-you-jugular-see-if-I-care attitude, Moreau’s almost epic battle against getting old, hoping (knowingly in vein) that he’d experience some sort of miracle. Same goes for Contadors and the Chicken’s cat-and-mouse in the Alps and even Vasseur’s win in stage 10 (he said in an interview after the win that he had “a feeling” that something special was going to happen that day as ‘07 was his 10th anniversary of racing pro and it being the 10th stage and all…).

Felt like last year was a proper show and this year is more of a yawn overall. Not commenting on the massive doping troubles last year either, just the way the story unfolded.

I’m tellin’ ya, you don’t know who will be digging deep into their refrigerator of courage. You never know what they might find there.

Oh yeah, a prediction.

Evans is about where he was last year when he didn’t deliver. Last year Sastre finished 2:26 behind Evans on a stage where Evans had every reason to leave it all on the road and Sastre didn’t. Sastre had no targets or threats in that race other than Zubeldia, and he went just a little faster than Zubeldia. Evans was riding for yellow.

The margin will be very tight, but it’ll be Sastre.

if everyone is so sure evans has it in the bag — than as denny green says: crown his ass.

not saying he’s not gonna win. just sayin’… anything can happen. think he’ll throw his bike in the ditch if he has a mechanical?

Care to make a friendly wager on that one?

I’ll bet an espresso on Carlos. They’re both ninies, but I think Sastre feels more like it’s about time he made something happen. I think it’s now or never for him and I’m willing to wager in favor of a dude in that position.

Stage 19, 2007 Vuelta, 20km. Evans is 47 seconds behind Sastre.

Evans gains only 20 seconds on Sastre, and drops off the podium behind stage winner Samuel Sánchez. Evans has a history of coughing up races like this. I’m just going by history.

Sastre will start last.. will that matter?
- yeah, I remember Fignon. (or should I say Lemond.. )

..but still, not having any clue about time trials, I’m curious.. does CSC HQ keep Carlos informed during his effort about his position relative to his rivals, (let’s say Evans) or do they just focus on his (Sastre’s) effort, and keep him dialed in to his own heartrate, power, cadence, etc. , so that at the end he can say “hey, that’s what I’ve got”.

?

Neener, neener. But I was wrong about the margin being tight.

So the pool turned into a contest for second place today — just like Evans’ performance on the road.