Smithers MINNEAPOLIS

The Petraeus Report

The much anticipated report from the commander of US forces in Iraq comes out next week. Some analysis:

You will hear that the surge is working; we should maintain it until we’ve finished the job.
You won’t hear that the surge is going to end in April 2008. Admiral Michael Mullen, the incoming chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, testified at his confirmation hearing that the surge could not be sustained past April 2008. To continue would require tours of duty in Iraq to be extended from 12 to 15 or 18 months. This option is off the table for the military as they are already seeing too many soldiers and junior officers quit due to relentless rotation cycles. What ever “job” our military is expected to finish, we don’t have the resources to do it.

You will hear that we should stay in Iraq even if we can’t maintain the surge because we are making progress.
You won’t hear that there is no evidence that overall violence is down in Iraq for our soldiers or for Iraqi citizens. 2007 monthly fatalities for U.S. troops has surpassed 2006 levels. Petraeus will argue that sectarian violence is down 75% but all of the drop came between December 2006 and January 2007, before the surge even began. What’s more, the Pentagon is fudging the numbers on violence by culling out Sunni on Sunni violence, Shi’a on Shi’a violence, car bombs, or getting shot in the front of the head. The Pentagon is calling this kind of violence “criminal.” Finally, any progress made on the military front was to provide breathing room for Iraqi politicians to work out their differences. The GAO has reported that Iraqi lawmakers have only met 1 of 8 political benchmarks and the Sunnis have walked away from the government making political progress impossible.

You will hear that our army can handle the stress.
You won’t hear that the army is shedding officers at an alarming rate. 44% of West Point graduates who became eligible to leave the army did so, the highest loss rate in 30 years. The longer we stay in Iraq the worse this will get. In order to meet recruiting goals the army is now keeping soldiers that would normally be discharged because of alcohol or drug abuse, being overweight, have medical problems or criminal convictions. In 2005 alone more than an entire infantry division entered the army in 2005 without meeting normal standard. There is a 42% increase in standard waivers since the Iraq War began.

You will hear that Nouri al-Maliki should be replaced since he does not want to promote political reconciliation.
You won’t hear that replacing al-Maliki won’t solve anything. If no one can make the Iraqi government work then it does not matter who is the leader of Iraq. It took Iraqis months to form a government in the first place so all replacing al-Maliki will do is ensure that Iraq has no government at all. Finally, al-Maliki is the leader of a sovereign state and it’s not up to the USA to decide when and if he should be replaced. That would be called a coup-d’etat and would fly in the face of our attempts at democracy in the middle east and make the USA even more hated.

You will hear that we can’t leave because a blood bath would follow.
You won’t hear that the blood bath is inevitable and already taking place. Wasting our money and the lives of our soldiers to postpone a catastrophe is a very poor investment.