What happened to Basso?
January 19th, 2006 |
Jan Ullrich will easily win the 2006 Tour de France, says seven-time champion Lance Armstrong.“I predict that he’ll win it by four to five minutes,” Armstrong was quoted as saying in Thursday’s Bild newspaper.
Hummm. So what happened to Ivan Basso? Armstrong had this to day last July on the podium at the finish of the Tour de France:
“Basso…has been a great rival. It’s tough to race against him, he’s too much of a friend. He’s perhaps the future of the Tour de France. So, Ivan: next year, this is your step; or Jan: this might be your step next year, I don’t know…”
If you watched it you would clearly infer from Armstrong’s body language that he was tipping Basso as the favorite for 2006.
In 2005 Ivan Basso beat Jan Ullrich in the Tour de France by 1:41.
This time was gained almost exclusively in the mountains. Basso put 2:54 into Ullrich during 7 mountain stages with 3 stages ending at the top of a climb. The time Basso got in the mountains was as a result of attempting to follow the pace set by Lance Armstrong, a pace that Ullrich was not able to match. Ullrich gained back 1:22 during the 3 time trial stages totaling 141.5km.
In 2006 there are 115km of time trial stages, 26.5km less than 2005. There are 5 mountain stages with again 3 stages ending at the top of a climb in 2006. Less time trials, almost as many mountains with the same number of tough finishes. So, at first glance, it looks like the 2006 Tour de France course is advantage Basso. However, it should be noted that:
• The day before the first stage of the 2005 Tour de France Jan Ullrich crashed into the back of his team car during a training ride, injuring his neck. The result of this crash may have prevented Ullrich from riding his best in the first stage time trial.• The 2005 Tour de France included a team time trial event. Ivan Basso’s CSC team included the time trial super talent, American Dave Zabriskie. Zabriskie raised the game for everyone on team CSC and, despite Zabriskie’s crash in the last 2km they put 0:28 into Ullrich’s T-Mobile team by the end of the day.
Basso does not have Armstrong to pace him up the mountains any longer. The 2006 Tour de France does not have a team time trial stage where Basso can take advantage of his team mate Zabriskie. Basso has also made it clear that he intends to race the 2006 Giro d’Italia (Tour of Italy) as he did in 2005. It is questionable, in the modern era of professional cycling, if it is possible to recover from the Giro in time to be at peak fitness for the Tour de France.
It remains to be seen if Ullrich really does have the advantage that Armstrong now says he has. Looking at details of the 2006 Tour I think it is to Ullrich’s advantage over Basso. But they’ll run the race to see for certain!
