Archive for June, 2005

Thursday, June 30th, 2005

2005 Tour de France preview.
Who ain’t gonna be there?
Viatcheslav Ekimov (RUSSIA), Discovery – One of Lance Armstrong’s seasoned team veterans injured himself in a crash while training last April. He will be sorely missed during the stage 3 team time trial.
Alessandro Petacchi (ITALY), Fassa Bortolo – One of the top road sprinters in the world. Petacchi has chosen to skip the Tour de France this year to focus on the Vuelta a Espana and the World Road Championship.
Damiano Cuenego (ITALY), Lampre – 2004 winner of the Giro d’Italia. Suffering from the same virus infection that prevented him from having success in the Giro this year.
Gilberto Simoni (ITALY), Lampre - Cuenego’s team mate. Will not be starting the Tour due to ‘muscle fatigue’…
Danilo Di Luca (ITALY), Liquigas Bianchi – Having a great year so far with Pro Tour victories in the Amstel Gold Race and Fleche Wallonne . Di Luca will skip the Tour and focus on Pro Tour events after the Tour de France.
Paolo Bettini (ITALY), Quick•Step – Points jersey winner in the 2005 Giro d’Italia, Bettini has been suffering from some kind of infection since the end of the Giro.
Erik Zabel (GERMANY), T-Mobile – 6 time green jersey winner in the Tour de France. Left off the T-Mobile Tour de France squad so that the entire team would focus on the overall.
Who’s gonna be there?
Lance Armstrong (USA), Discovery – Going for number 7.
Paolo Savoldelli (ITALY), Discovery – Winner of the 2005 Giro d’Italia. Will be working to help Armstrong win number 7.
Thomas Voeckler (FRANCE), Bouyges Telecom – The last rider to wear the yellow jersey in 2004 before Armstrong took it over. It will be harder for him to have success in the Tour this year as everyone knows him now.
Matt White (AUSTRALIA), Cofidis – Long time Postal rider who switched teams last year in the attempt to ride his first Tour. Hopefully White will make it to the start line this year. In 1999 his Vini Caldirola team was expelled before the start of the race after his team leader failed a blood test. In 2001 Postal left him off their Tour de France squad. Last year he crashed while warming up for the Tour prologue and broke his collarbone. White crashed again on this same shoulder three weeks ago but appears healthy enough to start Saturday.
Robbie McEwen (AUSTRALIA), Davitamon Lotto – Winner of the green jersey in 2004. Multiple stage winner in the 2005 Giro d’Italia. There is no better stage race sprinter than McEwen.
Iban Mayo (SPAIN), Euskaltel Euskadi – Exploded in the 2004 Tour, and not in a good way. We see if he can keep it together this year.
Fabian Cancellara (SWITZERLAND), Fassa Bortolo – Prologue winner in 2004.
Levi Leipheimer (USA), Gerolsteiner – Out from under the Dutch Rabobank ’system’, Leipheimer had a great Dauphine Libere and looks to be on track for a great Tour this year.
Vladimir Karpets (RUSSIA), Illes Balears – Best young rider of the 2004 Tour.
Roberto Heras (SPAIN), Liberty Seguros – Previous winner of the Vuelta a Espana. Heras has never shown what it takes to win during the Tour.
Joseba Beloki (SPAIN), Liberty Seguros – Beloki says he has physically recovered from his horrendous crash in the 2003 Tour de France but has he recovered psychologically?
Santiago Botero (COLUMBIA), Phonak – Back on track after a few ‘lost years’ with T-Mobile. Had a good Dauphine Libere.
Floyd Landis (USA), Phonak – Is he a leader? This year’s Tour will tell the story.
Tom Boonen (BELGIUM), Quick•Step – Winner of the final stage of the 2004 Tour de France. Winner of the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix this year. Boonen is one of the strongest road sprinters riding today.
Chris Horner (USA), Daunier Duval – Horner finally gets the nod to start the Tour. A fantastic US Pro Road Championships and a stage win in the Tour de Suisse indicates that Horner has good form.
Ivan Basso (ITALY), Team CSC – A revelation in the 2004 Tour de France and was on target for great things in the 2005 Giro d’Italia until a stomach bug knocked him out of the overall. Basso was the only rider that could stay with Armstrong every day in the mountains last year.
Bobby Julich (USA), Team CSC – Julich had blossomed since departing T-Mobile and won the 2005 Paris-Nice. He is still looking for the same form that took him to 3rd overall in the 1998 Tour de France.
Jan Ullrich (GERMANY), T-Mobile – The eternal second? It’s sink or swim for Ullrich this year. This is his last chance to beat Armstrong.
Alexander Vinokourov (KAZAKHSTAN), T-Mobile – Back on track after missing last years Tour. Vinokourov won the Mount Ventoux stage of the Dauphine Libere and won the Pro Tour Liege-Bastogne-Liege event earlier this year.
Andreas Kloden (GERMANY), T-Mobile – After a great 2004 Tour not much has been heard from Kloden. Was last year’s race just a flash in the pan for Kloden? Kolden could be used as bait to set up Ullrich or Vinokourov.
Who’s gonna win?
Lance Armstrong.
What? That’s it?
Yea, pretty much. I am expecting the 2004 Tour de France to be rivaled in dullness only by the 2005 Tour de France. Maybe Armstrong is burned out. Maybe Ullrich has what it takes. Maybe Basso will not have a bad day. Maybe, maybe, maybe. I did not see anything out of last years Tour that would tell me that Armstrong would have a real fight on his hands this year. So, I think the factor this year is how bad Armstrong wants it. And I think, despite the rumors, he wants it bad, as usual.
Ok. Who is going to win the green jersey?
I have to say that Robbie McEwen is my favorite to win the green jersey this year. He’s got a strong team that does a really great job to set him up for the finish. He may not win every sprint stage, I think Boonen will give him a run for the money, but McEwen will be up front enough and collect enough points to win green again.
Mountain jersey?
No Virenque this year so it’s kind of wide open. Michael Rasmussen seems pretty desperate to win a stage of the Tour. He may be up front enough in the mountains again this year and collect enough points to take the jersey. I don’t know. The mountain jersey seems kind of dumb because it’s never a pure climber than wins the jersey. There are too many points available on the smaller climbs. The bigger guys collect all these points and get an insurmountable lead before the big mountains. Maybe there is no such thing as a pure climber anymore anyway…
Best young rider?

Are you serious? Who cares?

What are the big stages this year?
Stage 11 for one. Any stage with the Galibier is a big stage. But I think we will know the winner of the Tour after stage 15. Stage 14 and 15 are the hardest of the Tour in 2005. When the leaders climb to Pla-d’Adet we will see who is going to win the overall.
Any big excitement in the Tour this year?
Maybe some French guy that no one has ever heard of will roll off the front and will collect enough time to wear the yellow jersey for a week, and the big excitement will be that he holds onto the jersey by a few seconds for one more day until Armstrong squashes him. Oh wait, that was last year. I don’t remember that being very exciting last year anyway. So, no, I don’t really expect any excitement this year. Maybe one of the riders will get sick with diarrhea and crap his shorts like LeMond did in 1986. Maybe it will be Armstrong. That would be exciting!

Humm…Anything else?

Roll on 2006. Armstrong will have retired and the Tour de France will be interesting again.



Thursday, June 30th, 2005

George Lakoff describes the proper reaction to Karl Rove:
1.Start with resisting Rove’s juicy bait.
2.Spell out the progressive philosophy of Total Security – keeping a strong military while also supporting job security, pension security, and security in the form of health and education. Attack Bush for giving up on homeland security, failing to protect cargo shipments, nuclear and chemical plants, and so on.
3.Point out Rove’s attempt to cover up Bush’s disaster in Iraq, and dwell on the public’s repudiation of the Bush policy for good reasons.
4.Keep pounding on the Downing Street memo, pointing out how Bush doctored intelligence and sent troops to war on false pretenses. Goad him about there being no WMD’s in Iraq, but plenty in North Korea.
5.Attack Bush for weakening our military and our economy, while strengthening al Qaeda, Point out that Bush is al Qaeda’s best friend, since he is their best recruiter.
6.Raise the stakes. Point out how the administration has been using 911 for their own political ends; of using the war in Iraq as a pretext to carry out a radical political agenda at home, and to get re-elected. Point out the immorality of using American and Iraqi lives for political ends.
7.Use the opportunity to brand the right wing as political fundamentalists, showing the intimate connections between Christian fundamentalism and Islamic fundamentalism.
8.Raise the question of whether the brutality arising from the US occupation of Iraq led to an anti-US reaction in Iran and the squelching of democratic forces there – exactly the opposite of Bush’s predicted result.
In short, be pro-active, not reactive.

But the Democrats helped Rove get Iraq identified with the war on terror again, characterizing the Democrats as unpatriotic naïve weaklings, and setting the stage for Bush’s address on June 28, 2005, in which he followed Rove’s lead and again framed the Iraq War in terms of 911 and the war on terror. This time John Kerry stepped in to help Bush, basically supporting the president’s position but offering policy-wonk modifications. The message: Bush is basically right, except for some minor twiddles.

The Democrats can learn from Bush and Rove: Stick to your guns and stay the course.



Thursday, June 30th, 2005

NYT 6/29/05: The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Richard B. Myers, told a town-hall meeting at the Pentagon today that the Army had exceeded its June quota, but gave no details. Senior Army officials said in interviews earlier in the day that the Army had exceeded the goal of 5,650 recruits by about 500 people. The Army Reserve also made its first monthly quota since last December, the official said.
CBS 6/9/05: Although the Army will not release its numbers until Friday, it fell about 25 percent short of its target of signing up 6,700 recruits in May, officials said Wednesday. The gap would have been even wider but for the fact that the target was lowered by 1,350.

The Army said it lowered the May target to “adjust for changing market conditions,” knowing that the difference will have to be made up in the months ahead.

Recruiters would have to land more than 9,760 young men and women a month, on average, to reach the 80,000 target by the end of September.
It would appear that the Army continues to lower its monthly quotas of recruits. Summer is traditionally the most successful period of the year for recruiting but this summer, so far, the military continues to struggle to meet it’s goals. Marine recruiters are now having to spend an average of 12 hours of effort to sign one recruit versus only 3 hours per signing one year ago. Recruiters, under pressure to meet enlistment goals, are suffering from stress induced issues such as stomach problems, depression, marital strife, nervous breakdowns and thoughts of suicide. So, in order to reduce this stress load on recruiters, and to stem the tide of bad press about recruiting shortfalls, the military is actively adjusting its recruitments goals downward.
The changes that have taken place in the military since the Vietnam war have created a force that is designed to strike hard and fast with overwhelming force to utterly defeat the enemy quickly and without significant loss of US solider life. The first Gulf War and the first few weeks of War in Iraq are perfect examples of the US military effectively doing what it was designed to do.
However, the US is now engaged in a guerrilla conflict in Iraq. History has shown how difficult these kinds of conflicts can be. President Bush and Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld were warned about the potential for guerrilla conflict but these warnings were ignored. Our soldiers are now fighting a battle with inadequate supplies, inadequate support and with dwindling recruitment reinforcement from back home.
William Saletan writes that our continued presence in Iraq is preventing Iraqis from stepping up and taking responsibility for their own country.
What have the assembly’s Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish leaders done for the past five months? Bickered over every petty dispute. How much of the constitution have they drafted? Zip. Why are they bickering instead of buckling down? Because they can. Because they don’t have to cut fast deals, meet the deadline, and give every faction a stake in the government to hold off the insurgency. They don’t have to do these things, because 140,000 American troops are propping them up.

Setting a deadline for withdrawal of those troops “would send the wrong message to the Iraqis, who need to know that America will not leave before the job is done,” Bush said tonight. But 45 seconds later, responding to calls for a troop increase, he cautioned, “Sending more Americans would undermine our strategy of encouraging Iraqis to take the lead in this fight.” Which is it, Mr. President? Does our military presence encourage Iraqi self-sufficiency or weaken it?

It’s time to make the Iraqis responsible for themselves. Bring the National Guard back so they can fulfill their responsibility to protect us here at home. Deploy more troops to Afghanistan to assure that country does not fall back into the hands of al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Act now Mr. President and prevent the destruction of our all-volunteer military.



Wednesday, June 29th, 2005

Last night’s Gopher Wheelmen ride.


(click for larger image)

Red is heart rate, blue is speed, brown is altitude.

This graph is just the 40 mile Gopher ride itself. I rode from my house, did the ride and then back home and that accounts for the 82.5 miles. It’s pretty sweet to get over 80 miles in especially when you don’t even get on the bike until after 4:30pm.
Finally a night on the Gopher ride where I actually felt great. No flats, no mechanicals, everything was clicking along just fine.
The ride itself is always a pretty sketchy proposition. There are some on the ride that certainly have the fitness to keep up, but the bike handling skills are not really there. There’s numerous points where the ride gets really fast and really hard and some riders get in a panic to stay on the wheel ahead of them. In desperation these riders start jumping back and forth between wheels in order to find some way to stay in the pack and, if you don’t keep your head up, these guys will just chop right in front of you. Scary! Sometimes one of these guys will just blow sky high and shoot to the back of the pack and, again if you’re not riding heads up, you risk riding right into the back of someone who is totally gassed.
There were a couple of women on the ride that really impressed me. Not the fact that they could just “keep up” because, as Teresa Moriaty has shown, if a woman rides enough and trains smart she can be just as fit and fast as most men. What impressed me is that these two women were riding really solid in the pack. They were always in the right spot at crunch time so they would not get gapped off the wheels when things got fast, they rode straight and predictable, if a gap opened in front of them they did not panic and get out of the saddle to shut down it down, they just up increased the tempo and patiently closed the gap. One of these women was a former pro racer and it really shows in how she rides. The other one is a local rider/racer who just rides damn good.
Day off today, track night tomorrow (if it does not get rained out…).



Wednesday, June 29th, 2005

Keith Olbermann recalls a Twilight Zone and how it relates to how we have responded politically to the events of 9/11:
As political allegory, it was pretty simple, but also very effective.

Something, or someone, starts screwing with the lights and the electricity on an ordinary suburban street. Within minutes, the residents have concluded that aliens from outer space have invaded. As alliances and rivalries dissolve and re-form with incredible swiftness, these neighbors accuse each other of collusion with the invaders. One of them finally starts shooting. The director pulls back to a nearby hill, where sit two real aliens, one of whom sagely reminds the other that there’s no need to actually attack any of these stupid humans — you can just scare them a little bit and then wait for them to tear themselves apart.

Think of how we responded — politically — to 9/11. First there was overwhelming non-partisanship. Years of deteriorating relations between the parties vanished; were even apologized for. And within three years the Republicans were insisting that a Democratic presidential victory would mean more terrorist attacks…

Substitute “terrorists” for “aliens” and Maple Street becomes the current American political scene. If there really is a functional al-Qaeda on the continent, it hasn’t needed to attack us since 9/11 because we’re all the Claude Akins and Jack Westons from the episodes accusing each other of collaboration.

In this vital area at least, the terrorists have already won. Nobody has to tear our country down; our leaders are doing it for them.



Wednesday, June 29th, 2005

From the Mirror, June 27:

SAS troops were last night poised to storm into Afghanistan and capture Osama bin Laden.

Special forces have “good intelligence” the al-Qaeda boss or a senior henchman is holed up in a Taliban enclave.

Two squadrons are on stand-by waiting for the go-ahead from reconnaissance troops on the ground in Afghanistan.

From the BBC, June 28:

A US military helicopter carrying troops has crashed in Afghanistan’s Konar province, the military has said.

It was unclear how many passengers were aboard the helicopter or why it crashed, but Afghan officials have said a rocket was fired at it.

A Taleban spokesman said the group had shot the helicopter down. The Pentagon has not commented on the claim.

NMMNB asks, are these two stories related?



Wednesday, June 29th, 2005

Check out the video of the men’s Pro Kerin at the Lehigh Valley Velodrome on June 10th of this year. Watch the last lap in particular and keep your eye on the finish. It’s a remarkable display of poor sportsmanship. Everything up to that point I think I could just chalk up to bike racing. But what happens at the finish is really something else. I am happy to say that I have never seen anything like this at our track.

UPDATE 6/30/05, 9:20am: Erik’s site has reached its bandwidth limit. Hopefully he will upgrade and get back online soon! Until then, don’t forget to keep your hands on the bars until you cross the finish line!

UPDATE 7/1/05 1:23am: Video is here now.



Wednesday, June 29th, 2005

Well, I was wrong. It was not the dumbest thread ever, this one is.
Notice the pretzel logic, the non-sequiturs, the total failure to keep on subject, the total failure to answer my god damn questions.
I have given up on those liberal haters at Anti-Strib. I’ll still read their stuff for a good laugh (Remember, Conservatives are happier people and live longer than Liberals. Ha! good one…) but I won’t bother to comment again.


Tuesday, June 28th, 2005

The 2005 Tour de France begins this Saturday. This will make 20 years that I have been a fan of cycling and have been following the events of this great race. I was thinking how much technology has changed this sport in the last 20 years. Bicycles in particular have undergone significant changes.

In 1985 all the high end frames were handbuild from steel tubes and lugs. Now all the frames are carbon fiber. Some welded aluminum frames are also being used.
Wheels used to be all built by hand using 32 or 28 spoke patterns. Mavic, Ambrosio and Wolber supplied most of the rims, DT the spokes and Shimano or Campagnolo the hubs. Now all the teams are riding machine built wheels with as few spokes as 8. Shimano, Campagnolo, Mavic are some of the manufacturers building these wheels.
Most of the riders were using toe clips and leather straps to keep their feet attached to the pedals. Bernard Hinault was the first rider to win the Tour on clipless pedals and this was in 1985. 20 years later everyone uses clipless pedals from various suppliers like Shimano, Look, Speedplay and TIME.
Shifting gears used to be accomplished with the little levers mounted to the downtube of the frame. Now the shifting and braking is done with the same levers that are mounted to the handlebars. Indexed gears makes shifting very easy now where as in the past riders were forced to learn how to shift smoothly in order not to over or undershift. In 1985 all riders were using either five or six speed drivetrains. In the Tour this year everyone will be on ten speed drivetrains.
Overall, bicycles are shorter in length than they were 20 years ago. The geometry is more upright yielding much more responsive riding frames. The weight of the bicycle has been reduced dramatically as well and this has resulted in minimum weight rule that prevents riders from using bikes under 6.8 kilograms (14.96 pounds). This rule is 5 years old at this point and should be reviewed as technology has advanced so far in the past 5 years that bicycle companies are now able to manufacture fairly economically frames that fall under this weight limit. This has created a situation where manufacturers that sponsor racing teams find themselves in the position of being able to sell bikes to the general public that their sponsored riders can’t race.
There have been other significant changes to the sport as well. Helmet technology has advanced to the point where all riders are comfortable wearing helmets for the entire length of the race. In 1985 the Bell V1 Pro was cutting edge at 500 grams. Now helmets weight is less than 250 grams. Helmet have much better ventilation now as well and some would say that, due to the way the vents are designed, a helmeted head is actually cooled better than a head without a helmet.
There have been lots of little changes in race technology over the years as well including finish line video, rider nutrition and inter-race communication. The fitness of the riders has remained unchanged. You are not going to fake it over a 5000 foot climb just because you have a bike that weighs hardly anything and a spanky helmet. It’s the rider that wins the race. I will post on this years Tour de France competitors later in the week.


Tuesday, June 28th, 2005

Can someone please explain to me how this works? I’m sure there is a simple explanation but I can not figure it out.

UPDATE: dmec figured it out. nice job. You always get a multiplier of 9 and all the multipliers of 9 (9, 18, 27, 36, 45, 56, 63, 72, 81) have the same symbols. What screwed me up was that the symbols change when you hit the crystal ball but all the multipliers of 9 still share the same symbol. These are the kinds of puzzles that have a real simple solution always end up fooling me.